Uncertainty of climate projections and an approach utilizing climate model outputs for hydrologic computation in the Ba River Basin

Vu Thi Van Anh, Tran Thuc, Ha Truong Minh , Pham Thi Minh Lanh
Author affiliations

Authors

  • Vu Thi Van Anh Hochiminh University of Technology, 268 Ly Thuong Kiet St., Ward 14, Dist. 10, HCMC, Viet Nam
  • Tran Thuc Vietnam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Climate Change, 23/62 Nguyen Chi Thanh, Dong Da Dist., Ha Noi, Viet Nam
  • Ha Truong Minh Vietnam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Climate Change, 23/62 Nguyen Chi Thanh, Dong Da Dist., Ha Noi, Viet Nam
  • Pham Thi Minh Lanh University of Architecture Ho Chi Minh City,196 Pasteur St., Ward 6, Dist. 3, HCMC, Viet Nam

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15625/2525-2518/56/6/12663

Keywords:

uncertainty, climate model outputs, hydrologic system, Ba River basin, decision scaling

Abstract

A top-down approach begins with Global Climate Models (GCMs) is a common method for assessing climate change impacts on water resources in river basins. To overcome the coarse resolution of GCMs, dynamic downscaling by regional climate models (RCMs) with bias-correction procedures is utilized with the aim to reflect the meteorological features at the river basin scale. However, the results still entail large uncertainties. This paper examines the ability to capture the observed baseline temperature and precipitation (1986-2005) in the Ba River Basin from GCM outputs, RCM outputs, bias-corrected GCM outputs and bias-corrected RCM outputs by analyzing statistical indicators between historical simulations and observed data in 4 temperature and 6 rainfall stations. Bias-corrected results of both GCM and RCM have significantly smaller errors compared to the unbias-corrected ones. The uncertainty of future climate projection for the mid and late 21th century of the bias-corrected GCMs and RCMs are evaluated. It is found that there is still uncertainty in projected results. A concept of “Decision-Scaling” which combines top-down and bottom-up approaches is proposed to assess the climate change impacts on hydrological system to take into account uncertainties of climate projections by models.

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References

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Published

17-12-2018

How to Cite

[1]
Vu Thi Van Anh, Tran Thuc, Ha Truong Minh, and Pham Thi Minh Lanh, “Uncertainty of climate projections and an approach utilizing climate model outputs for hydrologic computation in the Ba River Basin”, Vietnam J. Sci. Technol., vol. 56, no. 6, pp. 732–740, Dec. 2018.

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Section

Environment