Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for the South Central Vietnam

Nguyen Hong Phuong, Pham The Truyen


In this paper, the probabilistic seismic hazard maps for the South Central Vietnam are presented. An earthquakes catalog updated until 2014 and most recent seismotectonic and geodynamic information were used for delineation of 14seismic source zones in the study area. The Toro et al. (1997) attenuation equation was used for the PSHA. The hazard maps show distribution of the mean peak ground acceleration (PGA) with a 10%, 5%, 2% and 0.5% probability of exceedance in 50 years.

The highest values of PGA are observed in the continental shelf of the South Central Vietnam, in the 1090 meridian source zone, where the maximum PGA values are 0.12, 0.15, 0.2 and 0.28 g corresponding to the return times of about 500, 1000, 2500 and 10 000 years, respectively. In addition, two seismic source zones that can produce strong ground shaking off-shore South Central coast are Cuu Long -Con Son and Thuan Hai -Minh Hai. For the time period of about 1000 years, the highest shaking intensity within these source zones reaches the value of VIII (I=VIII by MSK-64 scale).In the territory of South Central Vietnam, the strongest shaking are observed in the Quang Nam and Quang Ngai provinces, in the Hung Nhuong -Ta Vi seismic source zone. For the return times of about 500, 1000, 2500 and 10 000 years, the highest PGA values in this zone are  0.1, 0.12, 0.14 và 0.17 g, respectively.Strong ground shakings are also observed in some other seismic source zones as Tuy Hoa -Cu Chi, Hau river and Nha Trang -Tanh Linh.

ThePGA maps present both short-term and long-term forecasts of seismic hazard in the South Central Vietnam and can be used as a reference for antiseismic design and many engineering applications.


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