PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT FOR THE TRANH RIVER HYDROPOWER PLANT NO2 SITE, QUANG NAM PROVINCE
Keywords:Tranh River hydropower plant No2, probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, seismic sources, logic tree, seismic hazard curve, seismic hazard disaggregation
In this paper, the results of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) for the Tranh river hydropower plant No2 site, Quang Nam province, are presented. A regional earthquake catalog updated until 2014 and most recent data on active faulting in the area with a radial extent of 100 km from the HPP site were used. Applied modern techniques in the PSHA methodology including logic tree and hazard disaggregation allow to adopt different models of seismicity, seismic sources and ground motions for the study area. A set of the probabilistic seismic hazard maps showing distribution of the median peak ground acceleration (PGA) and intensity I (according to the MSK-64 scale) predicted for the periods of approximately 200, 500, 1000 and 10.000 years, respectively was compiled for the region. For the HPP site, the calculated hazard is presented in terms of the hazard curves and the seismic hazard disaggregation graphics at the site. For the 500 year period, maximum shaking in the area with a radial extent of 100 km from the HPP site reaches the level VIII-IX of the MSK-64 scale (in the Tam Ky-Phuoc Son fault zone). At the HPP site, the maximum PGA value ranges between 0.1g and 0.13 g (VII-VIII levels in the MSK-64 scale). The PGA maps present both short - term and long - term forecasts of seismic hazard in Quang Nam province. Calculated shakings at the HPP’s site can be used for seismic safety evaluation and antiseismic design for the HPP’s facilities during its operational time.
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