A high-resolution climate experiment over part of Vietnam and the Lower Mekong Basin: performance evaluation and projection for rainfall

Huy  Hoang-Cong; Thanh Ngo-Duc; Tuyet Nguyen-Thi; Long Trinh-Tuan; Chung Jing Xiang; Fredolin  Tangang; Santisirisomboon Jerasorn; Tan Phan-Van

doi:10.15625/2615-9783/16942

Author affiliations

Authors

Huy Hoang-Cong Northern Center for Environmental Monitoring (NCEM), Vietnam Environment Administration (VEA), Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE), Hanoi, Vietnam
Thanh Ngo-Duc University of Science and Technology of Hanoi (USTH), VAST, Hanoi, Vietnam
Tuyet Nguyen-Thi Vietnam Institute for Development Strategies, Ministry of Planning and Investment, Hanoi, Vietnam
Long Trinh-Tuan Center for Environmental Fluid Dynamics, VNU University of Science, Hanoi, Vietnam
Jing Xiang Chung Faculty of Science and Marine Environment, Universiti Malaysia Terengganu, Kuala Nerus, Terengganu, Malaysia
Fredolin Tangang Department of Earth Sciences and Environment, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Selangor, Malaysia
Santisirisomboon Jerasorn Ramkhamhaeng University Center of Regional Climate Change and Renewable Energy (RU-CORE), Ramkhamhaeng University, Bangkok, Thailand
Tan Phan-Van Faculty of Hydro-Meteorology and Oceanography, VNU University of Science, Hanoi, Vietnam

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15625/2615-9783/16942

Keywords:

Dynamical downscaling, regional climate model, rainfall, climate change, Vietnam, Lower Mekong Basin

Abstract

This study first evaluates the performance of three model experiments in representing rainfall over part of Vietnam and the Lower Mekong Basin for the historical period 1986-2005. The three experiments include the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) EC-EARTH Global Climate Model (GCM) and two downscaling runs based on a regional climate model at 25km resolution with the GCM forcing (RCM-25km) and at 5km resolution with the RCM-25km forcing (RCM-5km). Verifications against observations show that the experiments generally capture the spatial distribution of climatological rainfall. While the GCM well represents the observed average rainfall cycles, its coarse resolution limits its capability in reproducing extreme rainfall values. The downscaling experiments do not clearly show their advantage in simulating average rainfall but exhibit significant added values when representing extreme rainfall in the study region. The RCM-5km does not outperform its driving 25km experiment in representing the mean and extreme rainfall values, suggesting that having a better resolution may not compensate for having a good model configuration with appropriate physical schemes. Analysis of climate projection for the far future period 2080-2099 under two representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, reveals that the downscaling experiments can modify the change direction of future rainfall obtained with the GCM. While the EC-EARTH GCM generally projects wetter tendencies of up to 50%, the downscaling experiments project a general decrease of down to -50% under both scenarios over the study domain. Regarding extreme rainfall, the annual maximum 1-day rainfall amount (RX1day) is projected to increase for the three experiments. The simple daily intensity index (SDII) future changes follow those of the annual rainfall values.

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