Projected future changes in drought characteristics over  Southeast Asia

Phuong  Nguyen-Ngoc-Bich; Tan Phan-Van; Long Trinh-Tuan; Fredolin  T. Tangang; Faye  Cruz; Jerasorn  Santisirisomboon; Liew  Juneng; Jing  Xiang Chung; Edvin  Aldrian

doi:10.15625/2615-9783/16974

Author affiliations

Authors

Phuong Nguyen-Ngoc-Bich Hydrology and Oceanography, VNU University of Science, Vietnam National University, Hanoi, Vietnam
Tan Phan-Van Hydrology and Oceanography, VNU University of Science, Vietnam National University, Hanoi, Vietnam
Long Trinh-Tuan Center for Environmental Fluid Dynamics, VNU University of Science, Hanoi, Vietnam
Fredolin T. Tangang Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Bangi, Malaysia
Faye Cruz Regional Climate Systems Laboratory, Manila Observatory, Quezon City, Philippines
Jerasorn Santisirisomboon Ramkhamhaeng University Center of Regional Climate Change and Renewable Energy (RU-CORE), Ramkhamhaeng University, Bangkok, Thailand
Liew Juneng Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Bangi, Malaysia
Jing Xiang Chung Faculty of Science and Marine Environment, Universiti Malaysia Terengganu, Kuala Nerus, Terengganu, Malaysia
Edvin Aldrian Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology, Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology (BPPT), Jakarta

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15625/2615-9783/16974

Keywords:

Drought, SPI, regional climate, Southeast Asia, CORDEX-SEA

Abstract

This study analyzes projected changes in drought characteristics over Southeast Asia for the mid and late 21^st century under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) that participated in IPCC AR5. Drought characteristics are computed using the standardised precipitation index (SPI) with 12-month time scales based on precipitation data from the multi-model downscaled experiments of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-Southeast Asia (CORDEX-SEA). Comparison with observations indicates that model uncertainties are high over Myanmar, southern China, and some areas of the Maritime Continent. The multi-model ensemble is in best agreement with the observation relative to individual models. Under the future projections, the ensemble model exhibits no significant changes in duration and severity of drought for all scenarios in the mid 21^st century. However, the drought characteristics are projected to become shorter and more severe for RCP8.5 in the late 21^st century. Projected changes in inter-arrival time, maximum intensity, frequency, and geographic extent also indicate more frequent and severe drought over the mainland in the late 21^st century for RCP8.5.

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