Projected future changes in drought characteristics over Southeast Asia

Authors

  • Phuong Nguyen-Ngoc-Bich Hydrology and Oceanography, VNU University of Science, Vietnam National University, Hanoi, Vietnam
  • Tan Phan-Van Hydrology and Oceanography, VNU University of Science, Vietnam National University, Hanoi, Vietnam
  • Long Trinh-Tuan Center for Environmental Fluid Dynamics, VNU University of Science, Hanoi, Vietnam
  • Fredolin T. Tangang Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Bangi, Malaysia
  • Faye Cruz Regional Climate Systems Laboratory, Manila Observatory, Quezon City, Philippines
  • Jerasorn Santisirisomboon Ramkhamhaeng University Center of Regional Climate Change and Renewable Energy (RU-CORE), Ramkhamhaeng University, Bangkok, Thailand
  • Liew Juneng Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Bangi, Malaysia
  • Jing Xiang Chung Faculty of Science and Marine Environment, Universiti Malaysia Terengganu, Kuala Nerus, Terengganu, Malaysia
  • Edvin Aldrian Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology, Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology (BPPT), Jakarta

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15625/2615-9783/16974

Keywords:

Drought, SPI, regional climate, Southeast Asia, CORDEX-SEA

Abstract

This study analyzes projected changes in drought characteristics over Southeast Asia for the mid and late 21st century under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) that participated in IPCC AR5. Drought characteristics are computed using the standardised precipitation index (SPI) with 12-month time scales based on precipitation data from the multi-model downscaled experiments of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-Southeast Asia (CORDEX-SEA). Comparison with observations indicates that model uncertainties are high over Myanmar, southern China, and some areas of the Maritime Continent. The multi-model ensemble is in best agreement with the observation relative to individual models. Under the future projections, the ensemble model exhibits no significant changes in duration and severity of drought for all scenarios in the mid 21st century. However, the drought characteristics are projected to become shorter and more severe for RCP8.5 in the late 21st century. Projected changes in inter-arrival time, maximum intensity, frequency, and geographic extent also indicate more frequent and severe drought over the mainland in the late 21st century for RCP8.5.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Abiodun B.J., Makhanya N., Petja B., Abatan A.A., Oguntunde P.G., 2019. Future projection of droughts over major river basins in Southern Africa at specific global warming levels. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 137(3), 1785-1799.

Bayissa Y., Maskey S., Tadesse T., Van Andel S.J., Moges S., Van Griensven A., Solomatine D., 2018. Comparison of the performance of six drought indices in characterizing historical drought for the upper Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia. Geosciences, 8(3), 81.

Brunner M.I., Swain D.L., Gilleland E., Wood A.W., 2021. Increasing importance of temperature as a contributor to the spatial extent of streamflow drought. Environmental Research Letters, 16(2), 024038.

Burke E.J., S.J. Brown, 2008. Evaluating Uncertainties in the Projection of Future Drought. J. Hydrometeorol., 9, 292-299. https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JHM929.1.

Cai W., et al., 2013. Projected response of the Indian Ocean Dipole to greenhouse warming. Nature Geoscience, 6(12), 999-1007.

Cancelliere A., Bonaccorso B., Rossi G., Salas J.D., 2003. On the probabilistic characterization of drought events (Doctoral dissertation, Colorado State University. Libraries).

Cook B.I., J.S. Mankin, K. Marvel, A.P. Williams, J.E. Smerdon, K.J. Anchukaitis, 2020. Twenty‐first century drought projections in the CMIP6 forcing scenarios. Earths Future, 8. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019ef001461.

Cook E.R., Seager R., Heim Jr R.R., Vose R.S., Herweijer C., Woodhouse C., 2010. Megadroughts in North America: Placing IPCC projections of hydroclimatic change in a long‐term palaeoclimate context. Journal of Quaternary Science, 25(1), 48-61.

Dai A., 2013. Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models. Nat. Clim. Chang., 3, 52-58.

Edwards D.C., 1997. Characteristics of 20th Century drought in the United States at multiple time scales. Air Force Inst of Tech Wright-Patterson Afb Oh.

Emanuel K.A., Živković-Rothman M., 1999. Development and evaluation of a convection scheme for use in climate models. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 56(11), 1766-1782.

Endo N., Matsumoto J., Lwin T., 2009. Trends in precipitation extremes over Southeast Asia. Sola, 5, 168-171.

ESCAP, 2020. Ready for the Dry Years: Building resilience to drought in South-East Asia. United Nations publication.

Giorgi F., Coauthors 2012. RegCM4: model description and preliminary tests over multiple CORDEX domains. Climate Research, 52, 7-29.

Giorgi F., et al., 2009. Addressing climate information needs at the regional level: the CORDEX framework. WMO Bull., 58, 175.

Giorgi F., Huang Y., Nishizawa K., Fu C., 1999. A seasonal cycle simulation over eastern Asia and its sensitivity to radiative transfer and surface processes. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 104(D6), 6403-6423.

Giorgi F., Marinucci M.R., Bates G.T., 1993. Development of a second-generation regional climate model (RegCM2). Part I: Boundary-layer and radiative transfer processes. Monthly Weather Review, 121(10), 2794-2813.

Huo-Po, C., Jian-Qi, S., Xiao-Li, C., 2013. Future changes of drought and flood events in China under a global warming scenario. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 6(1), 8-13.

Jamshidi H., Khalili D., Zadeh M.R., Hosseinipour E.Z., 2011. Assessment and comparison of SPI and RDI meteorological drought indices in selected synoptic stations of Iran. In World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2011. Bearing Knowledge for Sustainability, 1161-1173.

Juneng L., et al., 2016. Sensitivity of Southeast Asia rainfall simulations to cumulus and air-sea flux parameterizations in RegCM4. Climate Research, 69(1), 59-77.

Kim D., Ha K.J., Yeo J.H., 2021. New drought projections over East Asia using evapotranspiration deficits from the CMIP6 warming scenarios. Earth's Future, 9(6), e2020EF001697.

Kim D.-W., H.-R. Byun, 2009: Future pattern of Asian drought under global warming scenario. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 98, 137-150.

Lehner F., S. Coats, T.F. Stocker, A.G. Pendergrass, B.M. Sanderson, C.C. Raible, J.E. Smerdon, 2017. Projected drought risk in 1.5 C and 2 C warmer climates. Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 7419-7428.

Le H.M., Corzo G., Medina V., Diaz V., Nguyen B.L., Solomatine D.P., 2019. A Comparison of Spatial-Temporal Scale Between Multiscalar Drought Indices in the South Central Region of Vietnam. In Spatiotemporal Analysis of Extreme Hydrological Events. Elsevier, 143-169.

Le-Vu-Viet P., Phan-Van T., Mai-Van K., Tran-Quang D., 2019. Space-time variability of drought over Vietnam. International Journal of Climatology, 39(14), 5437-5451.

McKee T.B., Doesken N.J., Kleist J., 1993. The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. In Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology, 17(22), 179-183.

Mishra A.K., Singh V.P., Desai V.R., 2009. Drought characterization: a probabilistic approach. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 23(1), 41-55.

Ngo‐Duc T., et al., 2017. Performance evaluation of RegCM4 in simulating extreme rainfall and temperature indices over the CORDEX‐Southeast Asia region. International Journal of Climatology, 37(3), 1634-1647.

Nguyen‐Ngoc‐Bich P., et al., 2021. Projected evolution of drought characteristics in Vietnam based on CORDEX‐SEA downscaled CMIP5 data. International Journal of Climatology.

Prudhomme C., et al., 2014. Hydrological droughts in the 21st century, hotspots and uncertainties from a global multimodel ensemble experiment. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A., 111, 3262-3267. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1222473110.

Raghavan S.V., Liu J., Nguyen N.S., Vu M.T., Liong S.Y., 2018. Assessment of CMIP5 historical simulations of rainfall over Southeast Asia. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 132(3), 989-1002.

Rhee J., J. Cho, 2016. Future changes in drought characteristics: regional analysis for South Korea under CMIP5 projections. J. Hydrometeorol., 17, 437-451.

Rummukainen M., 2010: State‐of‐the‐art with regional climate models. Wiley Interdiscip. Rev. Clim. Change, 1, 82-96. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.8.

Seager R., et al., 2007. Model projections of an imminent transition to a more arid climate in southwestern North America. Science, 316, 1181-1184. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1139601.

Spinoni J., et al., 2020. Future global meteorological drought hot spots: a study based on CORDEX data. J. Clim., 33, 3635-3661.

Spinoni J., G. Naumann, H. Carrao, P. Barbosa, J. Vogt, 2014. World drought frequency, duration, and severity for 1951-2010. Int. J. Climatol., 34, 2792-2804. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3875.

Spinoni J., Vogt J.V., Naumann G., Barbosa P., Dosio A., 2018. Will drought events become more frequent and severe in Europe?. International Journal of Climatology, 38(4), 1718-1736.

Supharatid S., Nafung J., 2021. Projected drought conditions by CMIP6 multimodel ensemble over Southeast Asia. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 12(7), 3330-3354.

Sushama L., Said S.B., Khaliq M.N., Kumar D.N., Laprise R., 2014. Dry spell characteristics over India based on IMD and APHRODITE datasets. Climate Dynamics, 43(12), 3419-3437.

Svoboda M., Hayes M., Wood D.A., 2012. Standardized precipitation index user guide. World Meteorological Organization, 1090.

Swain S., Hayhoe K., 2015. CMIP5 projected changes in spring and summer drought and wet conditions over North America. Climate Dynamics, 44(9), 2737-2750.

Tangang F., Farzanmanesh R., Mirzaei A., Salimun E., Jamaluddin A.F., Juneng L., 2017. Characteristics of precipitation extremes in Malaysia associated with El Niño and La Niña events. International Journal of Climatology, 37, 696-716.

Tangang F., et al., 2020a. Projected future changes in rainfall in Southeast Asia based on CORDEX--SEA multi-model simulations. Clim. Dyn., 55, 1247-1267.

Tangang F., et al., 2020b. Multi-model projections of precipitation extremes in Southeast Asia based on CORDEX-Southeast Asia simulations. Environmental research, 184, 109350.

Thilakarathne M., V. Sridhar, 2017. Characterization of future drought conditions in the Lower Mekong River Basin. Weather and Climate Extremes, 17, 47-58.

Touma D., M. Ashfaq, M.A. Nayak, S.-C. Kao, N.S. Diffenbaugh, 2015. A multi-model and multi-index evaluation of drought characteristics in the 21st century. J. Hydrol., 526, 196-207.

van Vuuren D.P., et al., 2011. The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Climatic Change, 109, 5-31.

Yatagai A., Kamiguchi K., Arakawa O., Hamada A., Yasutomi N., Kitoh A., 2012. Aphrodite: Constructing a long-term daily gridded precipitation dataset for Asia based on a dense network of rain gauges. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 93(9), 1401-1415.

Zhai J., et al., 2020. Future drought characteristics through a multi-model ensemble from CMIP6 over South Asia. Atmos. Res., 246, 105111.

Zhang L., T. Zhou, 2015. Drought over East Asia: a review. J. Clim., 28, 3375-3399.

Zhao T., A. Dai, 2017. Uncertainties in historical changes and future projections of drought. Part II: model-simulated historical and future drought changes. Clim. Change, 144, 535-548.

Downloads

Published

08-03-2022

How to Cite

Nguyen-Ngoc-Bich, P. ., Phan-Van, T., Trinh-Tuan, L., T. Tangang, F. ., Cruz, F. ., Santisirisomboon, J. ., Juneng, L. ., Xiang Chung, J. ., & Aldrian, E. . (2022). Projected future changes in drought characteristics over Southeast Asia . Science of the Earth, 44(1), 127–143. https://doi.org/10.15625/2615-9783/16974