Seismic fragility curves based on the probability density evolution method


  • Thuat-Cong Dang University of Science and Technology - The University of Danang
  • Thien-Phu Le Université Clermont Auvergne, Sigma-Clermont, Institut Pascal,
  • Pascal Ray École Nationale Supérieure des Mines de Saint Etienne



Seismic fragility curve, probability density evolution method, log normal probability law, reliability, failure


A seismic fragility curve that shows the probability of failure of a structure in function of a seismic intensity, for example peak ground acceleration (PGA), is a powerful tool for the evaluation of the seismic vulnerability of the structures in nuclear engineering and civil engineering. The common assumption of existing approaches is that the fragility curve is a cumulative probability log-normal function. In this paper, we propose a new technique for construction of seismic fragility curves by numerical simulation using the Probability Density Evolution Method (PDEM). From the joint probability density function between structural response and random variables of a system and/or excitations, seismic fragility curves can be derived without the log-normal assumption. The validation of the proposed technique is performed on two numerical examples.


Download data is not yet available.


Metrics Loading ...




How to Cite

Dang, T.-C., Le, T.-P., & Ray, P. (2017). Seismic fragility curves based on the probability density evolution method. Vietnam Journal of Mechanics, 39(2), 177–189.



Research Paper