Performance evaluation of Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average models for forecasting saltwater intrusion into  Mekong river estuaries of Vietnam

Thai Tran Thanh; Liem Nguyen Duy; Luu Pham Thanh; Yen Nguyen Thi My; Yen Tran Thi Hoang; Quang Ngo Xuan; Tan Lam Van; Hoai Pham Ngoc

doi:10.15625/2615-9783/16440

Author affiliations

Authors

Tran Thanh Thai Institute of Tropical Biology, VAST, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Nguyen Duy Liem Nong Lam University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Pham Thanh Luu 1-Institute of Tropical Biology, VAST, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam; 2-Graduate University of Science and Technology, VAST, Hanoi, Vietnam
Nguyen Thi My Yen Institute of Tropical Biology, VAST, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Tran Thi Hoang Yen Institute of Tropical Biology, VAST, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Ngo Xuan Quang 1-Institute of Tropical Biology, VAST, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam; 2-Graduate University of Science and Technology, VAST, Hanoi, Vietnam
Lam Van Tan Department of Science and Technology of Ben Tre Province, Ben Tre Province, Vietnam
Pham Ngoc Hoai Institute of Applied Technology, Thu Dau Mot University, Binh Duong Province, Vietnam

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15625/2615-9783/16440

Keywords:

Climate change, Empirical Bayesian Kriging, water salinity forecast, saltwater intrusion, time series analysis

Abstract

The Mekong Delta is the most severely affected area by saltwater intrusion in Vietnam. Recent studies have focused on predicting this disaster with weekly and decade lead times without many seasonal forecasts, which is important for planning crop selection, crop structure, and sowing time. This study aims to forecast the spatial distribution of saltwater intrusion into the Mekong river estuaries of Vietnam during the dry season of 2021 by integrating Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average with Geographic Information System. ARIMA models were trained with a single input of water salinity measurements from 2012 to 2020. Compared to the weekly salinity observations in 2021, these models predicted very well in the My Tho and Ham Luong rivers but unsatisfactory performance in the Co Chien river. The deepest saltwater intrusion will occur between March 19th and April 16th of 2021, when the 4‰ saline front will move the farthest distance of 41,41 and 44 kilometers inland from the sea through My Tho, Ham Luong Co Chien rivers, respectively. The entire river system will be exposed to moderate risk of saltwater intrusion. Freshwater zones decreased significantly to 0.73% of the whole area of Ben Tre province. These findings could provide a valuable scientific foundation for the appropriate management of coastal aquifers to control or reduce saltwater intrusion.

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