Assessment and Simulation of Impacts of Climate Change on Erosion and Water Flow by Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool and GIS: Case Study in Upper Cau River basin in Vietnam

Abstract

The Upper Cau river basin which plays an important role in socio-economic developments the North of Vietnam is sensitive to changes of climate influencing flows, erosion, and water resources. The main objective of this study is to assess and simulate impacts of climate change on erosion and water flow in the basin. Using a GIS database and Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, the water flow and soil loss were assessed with data in period 1980-1999 called the based period, then simulated until 2100 considering the medium emission scenario (B2). The simulation result showed that the total annual runoff and soil loss tends to increase compared to the base period. For flow, the change rate of the simulation period is higher than the base period; the water flow rate will increase by 0.22% (2020-2039) and up to 1.37% (2080-2100). The total annual soil loss of the simulation period at Gia Bay station tends to increase steadily compared to the baseline, namely by 6.2% (2020-2039) and 25.5% (2080-2100). Overall, the result in this study shows that effects of climate changes on the basin are severe enough under the scenario B2 which is useful for authorities for basin management.

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