IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND SEA LEVEL RISE ON SALINITY INTRUSION IN THE LOWER DONG NAI RIVER SYSTEM
Keywords:climate change, MIKE 11, Dong Nai river system, sea level rise, salinity intrusion.
Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) is ranked among the top 10 cities in the world most likely to be severely affected by climate change and sea level rise (SLR). This study was to assess the impacts of change of upstream flow and sea level rise due to climate change on salinity intrusion in HCMC. The MIKE 11 model with modules hydrodynamic (HD) and advection-dispersion (AD) was applied to this problem by setting up the whole lower Dong Nai river system. Based upon the observed water level and salinity concentration data in 2009, the calibration and validation results indicated that the MIKE11 model was able to simulate the streamflow and salinity concentration with NSE values exceeding 0.6 for both calibration and validation periods. As a result, the differences in salinity concentration under climate change and SLR scenarios were analyzed. The simulated results illustrate that the saltwater will move inland in the future, especially in the dry season.