ASSESSMENT OF FARMERS’ PRONE STATE TO NATURAL DISASTERS: A CASE OF MAINSTREAM HYDROPOWER DEVELOPMENT IN THE LOWER MEKONG DELTA, VIETNAM
Keywords:floods, social vulnerability index, Mekong River Delta, hydropower.
The study provides a comprehensive view at the prone state of the Mekong Delta under baseline conditions of hydropower development. Communities in Vietnam Mekong Delta have main income sources from rice farming, fishing and aquaculture, so changes in floods pattern or salinity can directly affect people’s livelihoods. Among 13 provinces in Mekong River Delta, there are 9 provinces that have moderate Potential Impact Sub-Index (PII). Tra Vinh has the PII since its population is affected by both floods and salinity more heavily than other provinces. The provinces that have higher PII also have higher Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) to impacts. All provinces except Long An have moderate vulnerability to impacts because Long An not only has low PII but also high Adaptive Capacity Sub-Index (ACI) which makes it less vulnerable. Tra Vinh has highest SVI because of its exposed state to floods and salinity and high poverty rate. The results show that majority of Mekong River Delta are vulnerable to floods and salinity.