TY - JOUR
AU - Hoan*, Vu Thi
AU - Lu, Ngo Thi
AU - Rodkin, Mikhail
AU - Tuyen, Nguyen Huu
AU - Hang, Phung Thi Thu
AU - Phuong, Tran Viet
PY - 2016/10/20
Y2 - 2023/12/07
TI - Prediction of maximum earthquake magnitude for northern Vietnam region based on the gev distribution
JF - Vietnam Journal of Earth Sciences
JA - Vietnam J. Earth Sci.
VL - 38
IS - 4
SE - Articles
DO - 10.15625/0866-7187/38/4/8795
UR - https://vjs.ac.vn/index.php/jse/article/view/8795
SP - 339-344
AB - <p>The present work is a continuation and improvement of the application of the generalized extreme value distribution to study the seismicity of the Southeast Asia. We have applied the generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) method to estimate maximum magnitude value (M<sub>max</sub>) for the earthquake catalog of Northern Vietnam. Using this method, we obtain the distribution of maximum earthquake magnitude values. This distribution can be characterized by its quantile Q<sub>q</sub>(τ) at any desirable statistical level q. The quantile Q<sub>q</sub>(τ) provides a much more stable and robust characteristic than the traditional absolute maximum magnitude M<sub>max</sub> (M<sub>max</sub> can be obtained as the limit of Q<sub>q</sub>(τ) as q → 1, τ → ∞). The parameters have been obtained: z = - 0.178 ± 0.08 ; s = 0.23 ± 0.08; m = 4.39 ± 0.16; M<sub>max</sub> = 6.8 with the probability of 98% for period 2014 - 2064.</p><p><strong>References</strong></p><p>Bui Van Duan, Nguyen Cong Thang, Nguyen Van Vuong, Pham Dinh Nguyen, 2013. The magnitude of the largest possible earthquake in the Muong La - Bac Yen fault zone. Journal of Sciences of the Earth, 35(1), 49-53.</p><p>Cao Dinh Trong, Le Van Dung, Pham Nam Hung, Mai Xuan Bach, 2013. The neural network method for intermediate earthquake prediction (example in Vietnam). Journal of Marine Science and Technology, 3A(13), 17-24.</p><p>Gumbel E. J, 1958. Statistics of Extremes, Columbia Univ. Press.</p><p>Ngo Thi Lu, Tran Viet Phuong, 2012. About the approach to building algorithms and processes to predict earthquakes by statistical model. Journal of Sciences of the Earth, 34(4), 535-541.</p><p>Ngo Thi Lu, Tran Viet Phuong, 2013. 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