Prediction of maximum earthquake magnitude for northern Vietnam region based on the gev distribution

Authors

  • Vu Thi Hoan* Institute of Geophysics, Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology
  • Ngo Thi Lu Institute of Geophysics, Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology
  • Mikhail Rodkin International Institute of Earthquakes Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, RAS, Moscow
  • Nguyen Huu Tuyen Institute of Geophysics, Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology
  • Phung Thi Thu Hang Institute of Geophysics, Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology
  • Tran Viet Phuong Institute of Geophysics, Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15625/0866-7187/38/4/8795

Keywords:

Maximum magnitude (Mmax), generalized extreme value distribution (GEV), earthquake prediction, seismic hazard

Abstract

The present work is a continuation and improvement of the application of the generalized extreme value distribution to study the seismicity of the Southeast Asia. We have applied the generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) method to estimate maximum magnitude value (Mmax) for the earthquake catalog of Northern Vietnam. Using this method, we obtain the distribution of maximum earthquake magnitude values. This distribution can be characterized by its quantile Qq(τ) at any desirable statistical level q. The quantile Qq(τ) provides a much more stable and robust characteristic than the traditional absolute maximum magnitude Mmax (Mmax can be obtained as the limit of Qq(τ) as q → 1, τ → ∞). The parameters have been obtained: z = - 0.178 ± 0.08 ; s = 0.23 ± 0.08; m = 4.39 ± 0.16; Mmax = 6.8 with the probability of 98% for period 2014 - 2064.

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Published

2016-10-20

How to Cite

Hoan*, V. T., Lu, N. T., Rodkin, M., Tuyen, N. H., Hang, P. T. T., & Phuong, T. V. (2016). Prediction of maximum earthquake magnitude for northern Vietnam region based on the gev distribution. Vietnam Journal of Earth Sciences, 38(4), 339–344. https://doi.org/10.15625/0866-7187/38/4/8795

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