Prediction of maximum earthquake magnitude for northern Vietnam region based on the gev distribution

Abstract

The present work is a continuation and improvement of the application of the generalized extreme value distribution to study the seismicity of the Southeast Asia. We have applied the generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) method to estimate maximum magnitude value (M_max) for the earthquake catalog of Northern Vietnam. Using this method, we obtain the distribution of maximum earthquake magnitude values. This distribution can be characterized by its quantile Q_q(τ) at any desirable statistical level q. The quantile Q_q(τ) provides a much more stable and robust characteristic than the traditional absolute maximum magnitude M_max (M_max can be obtained as the limit of Q_q(τ) as q → 1, τ → ∞). The parameters have been obtained: z = - 0.178 ± 0.08 ; s = 0.23 ± 0.08; m = 4.39 ± 0.16; M_max = 6.8 with the probability of 98% for period 2014 - 2064.

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