UNCERTAINTY OF CLIMATE PROJECTIONS AND AN APPROACH UTILIZING CLIMATE MODEL OUTPUTS FOR HYDROLOGIC COMPUTATION IN THE BA RIVER BASIN

Anh Thi Van Vu, Thuc Tran, Minh Truong Ha, Lanh Thi Minh Pham

Abstract


A top-down approach begins with Global Climate Models (GCMs) is a common method for assessing climate change impacts on water resources in river basins. To overcome the coarse resolution of GCMs, dynamic downscaling by regional climate models (RCMs) with bias-correction procedures is utilized with the aim to reflect the meteorological features at the river basin scale. However, the results still entail large uncertainties. This paper examines the ability to capture the observed baseline temperature and precipitation (1986-2005) in the Ba River Basin from GCM outputs, RCM outputs, bias-corrected GCM outputs and bias-corrected RCM outputs by analyzing statistical indicators between historical simulations and observed data in 4 temperature and 6 rainfall stations. Bias-corrected results of both GCM and RCM have significantly smaller errors compared to the unbias-corrected ones. The uncertainty of future climate projection for the mid and late 21th century of the bias-corrected GCMs and RCMs are evaluated. It is found that there is still uncertainty in projected results. A concept of “Decision-Scaling” which combines top-down and bottom-up approaches is proposed to assess the climate change impacts on hydrological system to take into account uncertainties of climate projections by models.


Keywords


uncertainty, climate model outputs, hydrologic system, Ba River basin, decision scaling

Full Text:

PDF

References


Brown, C., Ghile Y., Laverty M., and Li K. - Decision scaling - Linking bottom-up vulnerability analysis with climate projections in the water sector, Water Resour. Res. 48 (2012) W09537, doi:10.1029/2011WR011212.

Tran Van Tra, Nguyen Xuan Thinh, Stefan Greiving - Combined top-down and bottom-up climate change impact assessment for the hydrological system in the Vu Gia- Thu Bon River Basin, Journal of Science of the Total Environment 630 (2018) 718 – 727, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.02.250.

Huynh Thi Lan Huong – Impacts of Climate Change on Ba River flow, Journal of Water Resources Science and Technolog 13 (2013) pp. 71-79. In Vietnamese.

Dessai, S., Lu X., and Hulme M. - Limited sensitivity analysis of regional climate change probabilities for the 21st century, J. Geophys. Res. 110 (2005) D19108, doi:10.1029/2005JD005919.

Amengual, A., Homar, V., Romero, R., Alonso, S. and Ramis, C. - A statistical adjustment of regional climate model outputs to local scales: Application to Platja de Palma, Spain. J. Climate, 25 (2012) 939957. 10.1175/JCLID-10-05024.1.

Wilby, R.L. and Dessai, S. - Robust adaptation to Climate Change, Weather 65 (7) (2010) pp. 180–185.




DOI: https://doi.org/10.15625/2525-2518/56/6/12663

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Index: Google Scholar; Crossref; VCGate; Asean Citation Index

Published by Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology